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Two days remaining.

England's first Test in Australia begins on the morning of Friday.

With the help of cricket statistics experts, we examine where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It's tough to score runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes rivalry might be wondering why they are even planning to turn up.

Much of the build-up has focused on the perceived challenge of batting successfully, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, particularly against pace bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to score runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A common belief from English cricket describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a fast bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When the ball is on top, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have arrived in Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'leading trio'.

When Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been sensational, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

In addition to Boland, other members of the backup squad have stepped up.

Michael Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia went into a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the pair, they have won by a combined 694 runs, featuring a win against England in Adelaide four years ago.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, outcomes have remained strong – England should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England could not find an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook went through partners faster than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Ever since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a partnership has been a reason in Zak Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who famously struck the first ball of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been identified as having the technique for Australia.

His average rises when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening pair.

It is not just the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the WTC final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has earned him a recall, probably back at three.

Across seven matches in the current year, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is one area where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful gamble, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It makes sense for the home team to want Lyon at the forefront, but spin bowling has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.

Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?

It limits the time Lyon has with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five matches against India, it was half that number.

Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was brought in, meaning the spinner has less space to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

England have a depressing habit of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

Traditionally, the series began in Brisbane, where they have not won since the year 1986.

Recently, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have visited 14 times since 1970 and won only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the identical, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

The Perth Test hosts an series opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the visitors tackle with no past burdens.

Brisbane is the location for the second match, the day-nighter.

The last time Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have won four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India last year.

Every Test at the new ground has been claimed by the team batting first.

The English often complicate day-night matches, when data suggest the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its traditional red ball.

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